This season, we aim higher. We are pushing our betting skills to new limits. Each season, we refine our approach. We learn from past outcomes and adapt to changing odds. In Season 4, we’ve improved our strategy. Now, we make smarter bets and aim for bigger wins. Whether you’re a pro or new to betting, our insights will help you reach your goals. Stay ahead of the game with our advanced tactics and exclusive tips—access it all now with 22Bet login and start winning today!
Evolving Our Strategies
Success in sports betting requires constant evolution and refinement. Systematic Sports has improved its betting models every season in the last five years. This helps them stay ahead of the competition. As we enter Season 4, we’ve focused on improving three crucial performance indicators:
For Season 4, we continued to improve three key metrics:
- Annualized Return: This shows the average yearly profit over time. It gives a clear view of long-term betting success.
- Sharpe Ratio: The higher, the better. Sharpe Ratio: This measures risk-adjusted returns. It shows how much profit you earn for each unit of risk you take. Elite fund managers in finance strive for a Sharpe ratio above 1.5.
- Maximum drawdown: The lower, the better. This is the biggest fall from a portfolio’s highest value to its lowest point. Successful managers aim to keep this number under 20% to minimize risks.
- We added five new signals to improve our key metrics. This helps us see betting data better, enabling us to make smarter and more profitable bets.
1. Factoring in Player Skill: Adjusting for xG Outliers
Expected Goals (xG) is a valuable metric but doesn’t always capture the full picture. Some players consistently exceed their xG due to exceptional finishing ability. In Season 4, we’re refining our xG calculations to account for these standout performers.
Our model now rewards consistent overperformers. This change considers each player’s skills. It gives a clearer view of what might happen.
2. Home-Away Advantage: Going Granular
Home-field advantage isn’t a one-size-fits-all metric. Home advantage differs by team. Some teams shine in front of their fans, while others feel little boost playing at home.
This season, we’ve examined home-away advantage in our predictions more closely. We don’t use a one-size-fits-all adjustment. Instead, we look at each team’s home and away performance since 2015, skipping 2020 due to COVID-19. This helps us create a more customized prediction model.
3. Leveraging Team ELO: Smarter Betting Against the Favorites
In Season 3, we frequently bet against favorites. We focus on finding value in the odds for underdogs.
We’ve incorporated a team ELO rating into our model to better check team strength. ELO is a reliable measure of a team’s performance relative to its competition. It also gives us a better view of matchups. This is especially true when we look at underdogs facing top teams.
4. Decay Factor: Adjusting for Time
Teams have highs and lows throughout the season, so past performances become less important over time. A match played three months ago doesn’t carry the same weight as a recent one.
We added a decay factor to our model. This slowly lessens the impact of older matches. This ensures our predictions remain sharp, prioritizing the most up-to-date and relevant data.
In the past, we treated the last six game weeks equally important in our calculations. This new method prevents old data from impacting predictions. It ensures our strategy is based on the latest and most relevant performance metrics.
5. Optimizing Value and Probability Thresholds Through Backtesting
We’ve fine-tuned our value and probability thresholds using insights from our backtesting engine. We’ve refined our “value bet” criteria. Now, we focus on making smart, profitable picks instead of picking winners.
This recalibration ensures that every bet meets strict criteria. It reduces noise and focuses on bets with the best-expected value.
Ready to Upgrade Your Strategy?
This model now uses more metrics and information, and the backtests are better than ever for Season 4.