A betting odds of 1.5 for team A means that this bet must be won 67% of the time. The way to calculate this is: 1 / 1.5 * 100 = 67 (formula: 1 / odds * 100 = probability in percent). It is essential to understand this way of thinking at TonyBet. It is not enough to claim that team A is better. In order to justify the bet, team A must win at least 68% of the time. However, since there can only be one winner, the result for a unit stake will either be +0.5 (1.5 payout minus 1.0 stake) or -1.0 (loss of stake). Whether the bet was profitable or not is very difficult to assess in retrospect.
And it is precisely for such cases that the aforementioned journal helps. Here you can check whether such bets have been won often enough. If more than two thirds of these types of bets are won, they can be considered as a whole and are no longer dependent on this one game. In addition to understanding how often a bet must be won, it is also essential to understand how the bookmaker assesses the situation. An example will explain this in more detail:
This is a bet with only two possible outcomes. Either team A or team B wins. Draws are ignored (common in tennis, for example). If the bookmaker sets odds of 1.9 for both teams, this means that he assumes a probability of 50% that either team A or team B will win.
The first thought of many novice bettors would probably have been that the bookmaker is considering a 53% chance each (1/1.9). However, this is of course not mathematically possible. This would result in a total of 106%.
To be successful in sports betting, three things are important. Firstly, you need to understand how the bookmaker assesses the situation before a game. Secondly, the sports bettor must have a well-founded, better assessment and thirdly, he must also beat the bookmaker’s margin.
To do this, proceed as follows:
Step 1 : Understand the bookmaker’s pre-match assessment. If he offers a 1.9 on both sides, the correct way to calculate is:
Team A = (1/1.9) + Team B = (1/1.9) = 0.526 + 0.526 = 1.052
Team A (0.526 /1.052) = 50%
Team B (0.526/1.052) = 50%
The bookmaker therefore sees a 50:50 chance. This was also very easy to see from the fact that he gave both teams identical odds.
Step 2: The sports bettor must arrive at a well-founded, better assessment. His analysis must therefore determine that one of the two teams is better. The assessment is of course subjective and does not necessarily have to be shared by other bettors.
Step 3: He must beat the bookmaker’s margin. It is not enough to be certain that team A is better. There must be at least a 53% chance that said team will win. 52% is not enough, as the odds mathematically imply a 52.6% probability despite the bookmaker’s 50/50 assessment.
Digression: Converting betting odds into probabilities
To summarize:
The bookmaker gives an opinion (1st step), the sports bettor must have a different (better) opinion (2nd step) and he must even have a much better opinion, as the bookmaker’s margin must be beaten additionally (3rd step).
And this is precisely why it is so important to have several accounts with different bookmakers in order to always be able to get the best odds. This facilitates the third aspect mentioned above.
But before this topic is dealt with, another important factor should be understood. Having multiple accounts is, as mentioned, essential. But it is also much more important to understand what two types of bookmakers there are. On the one hand, there are the European bookmakers and, on the other, their Asian counterparts. European bookmakers are widely regarded as so-called soft bookies. A soft bookie means that the odds of this bookmaker rarely correspond to the real probability.
Figuratively speaking, the money from Asia spills over into Europe. Much larger sums are bet in Asia than in Europe. Larger sums of money lead to very precise values, similar to the stock market. As a result, the odds in Asia change first, until they arrive in Europe with a slight delay.
It can therefore happen that Asian bookmakers currently offer odds of 1.9 for the same match outcome, while in Europe the odds are still 2.1. According to the efficient market theory, the odds in Asia are more accurate due to the greater flow of money. Therefore, the 2.1 odds from Europe would have value at the current time. A sports betting professional must recognize this situation and take advantage of it.